UMNO already giving Anwar political headaches

Malaysian leader’s pact with erstwhile rival party is quickly taking the shine off his reform credentials

Anwar Ibrahim’s long-time supporters always believed his rise to the premiership would mark a new era of clean governance and democratization in Malaysia. But few anticipated that when the 75-year-old politician finally clinched the top job, his government would include the very United Malays National Organization (UMNO) party he spent the bulk of his career lambasting as corrupt and anti-democratic.

UMNO was arguably true to that critique at its recently concluded general assembly meeting, where the party’s top two leadership posts were closed to a vote and its incumbent president castigated the judiciary for supposedly politically persecuting imprisoned ex-premier and UMNO stalwart Najib Razak.

While Anwar may have benefited from UMNO leader Ahmad Zahid Hamidi, his graft-accused deputy premier, maintaining his leadership position uncontested by a potential challenger opposed to cooperation with his governing Pakatan Harapan (PH) bloc, concerns are rife that the two politicians’ Faustian bargain will eventually end in political betrayal.

Meanwhile, in the Borneo state of Sabah, Anwar’s “unity government” faced an early stress test when a Zahid-aligned UMNO leader tried and failed to topple the state’s pro-Anwar administration through political defections. While the attempted political putsch was foiled, analysts say the drama is still evolving and could have implications at the national level.

Read the full story at Asia Times.

Nile Bowie is a journalist and correspondent with the Asia Times covering current affairs in Singapore and Malaysia. He can be reached at nilebowie@gmail.com.

Singapore’s 2023 hinges on smooth China reopening

City-state’s economic growth as low as 0.5% in 2023 if China’s ‘zero-Covid’ exit fails to produce a fast and strong rebound

Singapore’s export-reliant bellwether economy is bracing for tough times in 2023 with trade expected to shrink or record no growth amid weakening global demand, tighter liquidity and persistent inflation. Accordingly, many economists foresee a possible technical recession in the first half of next year.

Though the Ministry of Trade and Industry (MTI) does not forecast a recession in its baseline scenario, official 2023 projections show gross domestic product (GDP) growth petering to a slow crawl of anywhere between 0.5% and 2.5%. Growth prospects are brightest for tourism and consumer sectors but it remains unclear whether falling export demand can be sufficiently offset.

Singapore’s key non-oil domestic exports, or NODX, which range from petrochemicals and pharmaceuticals to semiconductors and other electronics, tumbled 14.6% year-on-year in November, marking the second consecutive decline following a 6.1% contraction in October. Flagging orders from Hong Kong and China were the largest contributors to the fall.

Beijing eased many of its strict “zero-Covid” rules earlier this month in a policy U-turn following widespread protests, but its reopening has since been complicated by the unchecked spread of the virus and overwhelmed health services. Nonetheless, the potential for a Chinese economic rebound could help Singapore to outperform its downbeat official growth forecast.

Read the full story at Asia Times.

Nile Bowie is a journalist and correspondent with the Asia Times covering current affairs in Singapore and Malaysia. He can be reached at nilebowie@gmail.com.

Perilous pact keeps Anwar on top, for now

Malaysian leader wins shoo-in confidence vote and cements controversial cooperation deal in bid to steady his ‘unity’ government

Malaysia Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim won crucial backing for his premiership on Monday (December 19) when parliament passed a motion of confidence, helping consolidate his position as head of a royally-brokered “unity” government formed after last month’s election delivered a hung parliament.

The confidence motion was not a formal requirement but was held at the discretion of the 75-year-old premier in a bid to cement his legitimacy after rival and former premier Muhyiddin Yassin cast doubt on his support, accusing his Pakatan Harapan (PH) bloc of committing the “biggest electoral fraud ever” in cahoots with the former ruling Barisan Nasional (BN) coalition.

Neither the government nor the opposition pushed for lawmakers to vote individually; the confidence motion instead passed by a simple voice vote. But the government’s command of 148 out of 222 parliamentary seats, enough for a two-thirds majority to table and pass constitutional amendments, was ostensibly demonstrated through votes for the new house speaker and two deputies.

Hafidzi Razali, a senior analyst at the BowerGroupAsia consultancy, said the move “allowed Anwar to officially record his coalition’s numbers in the parliament, and not through untransparent political maneuvering,” a reference to the use of signed statutory declarations (SDs) from individual lawmakers that the two most recent administrations have relied on to shore up support.

Read the full story at Asia Times.

Nile Bowie is a journalist and correspondent with the Asia Times covering current affairs in Singapore and Malaysia. He can be reached at nilebowie@gmail.com.

Anwar’s ‘unity’ government a fraught Faustian bargain

Malaysian leader puts his avowed ‘clean governance’ principles on the line in coalition with corruption-tainted UMNO

Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim’s strategic allocation of key cabinet seats appears to have bolstered the near-term stability of his new royally-brokered “unity government”, but volatile political fault lines and strong economic headwinds will test his leadership in 2023.

While selecting a cabinet of past political foes was never going to be easy, the 75-year-old premier’s choice of graft-accused United Malays National Organization (UMNO) president Ahmad Zahid Hamidi as deputy prime minister has been an especially bitter pill for Malaysians who voted for Anwar’s good governance and anti-corruption agenda.

The November 19 election delivered a hung parliament where Anwar’s Pakatan Harapan (PH) bloc won the most seats with 82 but fell well short of a majority. The PH chief was appointed by Malaysia’s constitutional monarch to lead a unity government after Zahid’s Barisan Nasional (BN) coalition agreed to back Anwar’s bid, prompting key Borneo-based parties to do the same.

While the UMNO president’s top-level appointment has raised eyebrows, it is widely seen as a compromise of political necessity. Zahid, who served as deputy premier from 2015 to 2018 under the scandal-plagued Najib Razak administration, was not appointed to serve in the two governments preceding Anwar’s due to the various corruption-related court cases he faces.

Read the full story at Asia Times.

Nile Bowie is a journalist and correspondent with the Asia Times covering current affairs in Singapore and Malaysia. He can be reached at nilebowie@gmail.com.

Micron reveals its big picture growth plans

US chip maker is cutting CapEx now amid a downturn but plans to splurge $150 billion on R&D and new fabs over the next decade

America’s Micron Technology, one of the world’s leading memory and storage chip makers, is making billions of dollars in new global investments to meet anticipated long-term demand for its leading-edge technologies even as the firm scales back spending on chip production amid a worsening supply glut and market downturn.

Surging work-from-home demand for consumer technology products during the Covid-19 pandemic sparked a boom in semiconductor orders but inflationary pressures coupled with a return to the office has put a damper on new personal computer and smartphone purchases, leaving the market awash in chips. New US restrictions on chip and chip-making equipment exports to China are also roiling supply chains.

“The industry downturn is continuing and continues to be pretty severe,” said Sumit Sadana, Micron’s executive vice president and chief business officer, in an exclusive interview with Asia Times. “Our goal is that we quickly get to a point where the demand growth is ahead of supply growth so that the significant amount of… inventory starts to normalize.”

Sadana pointed to an “unusual confluence of events” including rate tightening to rein in decades-high inflation, the Russia-Ukraine war and China’s “zero-Covid” policy and property slump as causing an “unusual level” of supply-demand imbalance in DRAM and NAND memory chip markets that usually account for over 90% of Micron’s revenue.

Read the full story at Asia Times.

Nile Bowie is a journalist and correspondent with the Asia Times covering current affairs in Singapore and Malaysia. He can be reached at nilebowie@gmail.com.

Anwar on top but risks abound for his staying power

PM Anwar Ibrahim’s new ‘unity’ government brings together strange bedfellows and thus could fall sooner than later

Anwar Ibrahim was sworn in as Malaysia’s tenth prime minister on Thursday (November 23) after the country’s constitutional monarch appointed him to lead a historic unity government, a remarkable reversal of fortunes for a politician seen as a perennial leader-in-waiting who had repeatedly fallen short of the premiership.

After pursuing the top role for three decades and spending nine years in jail for sodomy and corruption on charges he says were politically motivated, the 75-year-old veteran opposition leader now has a chance to lead following an almost five-day political deadlock after the November 19 general election resulted in a hung parliament.

“‘Finally,’ has been everyone’s reaction. He’s been fighting for this job for a long time and people assumed that he would never make it – and now he’s the prime minister. But he’s come in through difficult circumstances and into difficult circumstances,” said Bridget Welsh, an honorary research associate at the University of Nottingham Malaysia Asia Research Institute.

Malaysia’s king, or Yang di-Pertuan Agong, played a central role in resolving the political impasse by meeting with coalition leaders and his fellow rulers, ultimately using his influence to encourage the formation of a unity government. It marked the third time the king has chosen a prime minister in just over two years, though it is the first time it has happened following an election.

Read the full story at Asia Times.

Nile Bowie is a journalist and correspondent with the Asia Times covering current affairs in Singapore and Malaysia. He can be reached at nilebowie@gmail.com.

No unity, no stability and no PM after Malaysia’s polls

Post-election hung parliament means whoever eventually leads next coalition government will be at perpetual risk of being toppled

Malaysia is in the grip of a political impasse after a general election on November 19 produced a hung parliament with no clear winning party or coalition. More than four days since polling day, prime ministerial contenders Muhyiddin Yassin and Anwar Ibrahim have struggled to substantiate their conflicting claims of majority support.

Opposition leader Anwar’s Pakatan Harapan (PH) won 81 seats at the polls, putting it ahead of Muhyiddin’s conservative Perikatan Nasional (PN) bloc’s 73 seats. The once-dominant Barisan Nasional (BN) delivered its worst-ever electoral performance, winning just 30 seats, but its lawmakers have now found themselves in the position of kingmakers.

What is clear is that an election called months ahead of schedule with the intent to stabilize the political landscape has done the opposite, putting the stability of the next government in question. The ringgit currency notably fell against the dollar and the Kuala Lumpur stock market weakened with the prospect of yet another wobbly government.

Coalition and party leaders have since Tuesday (November 22) come and gone from the Istana Negara, or national palace, for audiences with Malaysia’s constitutional monarch. Sultan Abdullah Sultan Ahmad Shah reportedly sought to broker a unity government with PH and PN, a request Muhyiddin claims he rebuffed because his coalition has always explicitly ruled out such cooperation.

Read the full story at Asia Times.

Nile Bowie is a journalist and correspondent with the Asia Times covering current affairs in Singapore and Malaysia. He can be reached at nilebowie@gmail.com.

Muhyiddin looking like a comeback kid in Malaysia

Ex-premier’s Perikatan Nasional coalition outperformed election forecasts and is in pole position to form the next government

Former national leader Muhyiddin Yassin is seemingly poised to make a comeback as Malaysia’s tenth prime minister after cobbling together a post-election alliance a day after the November 19 polls resulted in a hung parliament with no party or coalition winning a majority.

It marks the first time in Malaysia’s history that a national election did not deliver a clear winner. The vote did, however, produce a clear loser: the Barisan Nasional (BN) alliance whose United Malays National Organization (UMNO) has been the nation’s dominant political force for over six decades.

BN’s Prime Minister Ismail Sabri Yaakob had sought to retake the government in Putrajaya, calling an election eight months earlier than required amid monsoon rains, only for the coalition to suffer the worst defeat in its political history, winning only 30 seats out of the 178 it contested. The polls, which saw a record turnout of 73%, mark the coalition’s second consecutive electoral defeat after initially losing power in a shock result in 2018.

Muhyiddin’s Perikatan Nasional (PN) secured a stronger-than-expected 73 seats while pledged support from regional parties in the Borneo states of Sabah and Sarawak, namely Gabungan Parti Sarawak (GPS) and Gabungan Rakyat Sabah (GRS), have boosted its coalition count. Post-election mixed messaging around BN’s support for a PN-led pact, however, has muddied the political waters.

Read the full story at Asia Times.

Nile Bowie is a journalist and correspondent with the Asia Times covering current affairs in Singapore and Malaysia. He can be reached at nilebowie@gmail.com.

Malaysia’s snap election could break any number of ways

One-fifth of voters undecided ahead of Nov 19 contest forecasters expect to result in a hung parliament and heavy post-poll horse-trading

Never has the outcome of a Malaysian election arguably been so difficult to predict. That sentiment is one forecasters and analysts might share on the eve of the November 19 general election following a rousing two-week campaign period that has seen the race tighten considerably, putting hitherto perceived frontrunner Barisan Nasional (BN) in uncharted waters.

BN chairperson Ahmad Zahid Hamidi was unmistakably bullish on the coalition’s chances for victory when he pushed incumbent caretaker Prime Minister Ismail Sabri Yaakob to call snap polls last month despite warnings of heavy monsoon rain and flooding. The United Malays National Organization-led (UMNO) bloc now clearly finds itself on the defensive.

Coalitions led by former premier Muhyiddin Yassin and long-time opposition leader Anwar Ibrahim are seen to have gained momentum in recent days, strengthening perceptions that the highly competitive vote will result in a hung parliament with no single coalition expected to win a simple majority in the legislature needed to form a government.

Gone is the era when BN predictably won elections; the looming vote may only decide which coalition will be in the strongest negotiation position to lead the next administration. With a fifth of the 21.1 million electorate still projected as undecided and the crucial ethnic Malay vote split by political fragmentation, the jury is out on who will be Malaysia’s next prime minister.

Read the full story at Asia Times.

Nile Bowie is a journalist and correspondent with the Asia Times covering current affairs in Singapore and Malaysia. He can be reached at nilebowie@gmail.com.

Will a dark horse become Malaysia’s next PM?

UMNO leader Zahid isn’t running for PM at Nov 19 election but that doesn’t mean the corruption-tainted politician won’t end up on top

Campaigning is heating up ahead of Malaysia’s November 19 general election in what is set to be a tight race, with incumbent Prime Minister Ismail Sabri Yaakob’s Barisan Nasional (BN) facing off against coalitions led by veteran opposition leader Anwar Ibrahim and ex-premier Muhyiddin Yassin as a wide array of smaller parties join the fray.

Fatigued by rising inflation and political instability, voters will decide the winners and losers from among a record 945 candidates vying for 222 parliamentary seats. Apart from BN, Anwar’s Pakatan Harapan (PH) and Muhyiddin’s Perikatan Nasional (PN) – the country’s three main national alliances – a coalition led by two-time former premier Mahathir Mohamad is also making its debut.

Over 210 multi-cornered contests are expected, a factor that could split votes more than in previous elections. Analysts say the polls could yield a hung parliament where no single party or coalition wins a simple majority, an outcome that could result in a scramble for power where opposing alliances come together in a coalition of convenience to form the next government.

“If there is no coalition with a clear workable majority, what would happen is that some of the most opportunistic and Machiavellian elements in Malaysian politics may emerge,” said political analyst Chandra Muzaffar. “You may have people who want to be in power because they’ve got personal agendas, including staying out of prison or making sure that the law does not apply to them.”

Read the full story at Asia Times.

Nile Bowie is a journalist and correspondent with the Asia Times covering current affairs in Singapore and Malaysia. He can be reached at nilebowie@gmail.com.