After narrowly avoiding a technical recession earlier this year, recent data shows better-than-expected but still sluggish growth in Singapore. But the city-state’s trade-reliant economy could decelerate for the remainder of this year and even into 2024 if the United States and Chinese economies underperform baseline forecasts, say analysts.
Gross domestic product (GDP) rose 0.7% year-on-year in the July to September quarter according to according to advance estimates recently published by the Ministry of Trade and Industry (MTI). On a quarter-on-quarter seasonally adjusted basis, the economy expanded by 1%, ahead of economists’ forecasts and faster than the tepid 0.1% growth in the preceding quarter.
In a policy statement on October 13, the Monetary Authority of Singapore, the city-state’s central bank, cited “muted” growth prospects in the near term and expectations of full-year growth to come in “at the lower half” of the official forecast range of 0.5% to 1.5%. It added that growth in Singapore’s major trading partners should gradually pick up by the second half of next year.
Analysts at research firm BMI Research were less optimistic of a 2024 rebound in a research note reviewed by Asia Times. The independent monitor issued a downward revision to Singapore’s full-year growth forecast to 0.8% from 1.1% and sees a further deceleration to 0.5% in 2024, owing to slowdowns expected among Singapore’s major trade partners and fiscal consolidation.
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Nile Bowie is a journalist and correspondent with the Asia Times covering current affairs in Singapore and Malaysia. He can be reached at nilebowie@gmail.com.
